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Lake Valley

2019 annual Real Estate Market Report

2019 Market Snapshot

1 %
$ 20

2019 average price per SQFT

$ 800 K
Average Home Value

2019 average sale price

$ 700 K
Median Home Value

2019 median sale price

Active Listings - January 2020


Active Listings

700 K

Average list price


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Vacant Lots

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Home Sales - January 2020


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$ 600 K
Average Price

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Days On Market

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Real Estate Market Data Courtesy of Boco Realty LLC

Lake Valley

2019 Annual Real Estate Market Report

Lake Valley is a unique and well defined local real estate market. It has a defined physical location and only has single family homes. This makes it easy to compare apples to apples and accurately track and understand market stats and sales data.

We broke Lake Valley down into three subdivisions – Lake Valley Estates, North Rim and Fairways Living. We know Fairways Living isn’t officially part of Lake Valley, so we tracked data both with and without Fairways living.

There was also one outlier sale – the sale of the last vacant lot in Lake Valley. We excluded this sale from calculations involving average and median sale price.

In addition to residential homes, the community is anchored by a privately-owned golf course and clubhouse and enjoys significant acreage of both public and private open space and trails.

The golf course and open space add significantly to property values.

2019 Market Summary

Here’s a summary of the 2019 Lake Valley real estate market report.

The Lake Valley real estate market stayed solid in 2019 with modest appreciation, an increase in listings and sales but also a significant number of aggressive price cuts as we progressed through the year.

The numerous and significant price cuts confirm that the market has slowed from the peak of 2018 and sellers can no longer push the asking price. Lake Valley is no longer a seller’s market.

Overall there were 27 listings, 21 of which sold plus 4 pending sales going into 2020. The high rate of successful sales indicates continued strong demand for Lake Valley homes.

In 2020 we expect a slower market with a stabilization of home values, lower inventory and possibly a small increase in home values. Sellers need to adjust their asking price in-line with 2019 comparable sales as overpriced homes will likely sit on the market.

About the Market Report

We wrote the market report to help you go beyond the raw numbers and understand what the data means for your home value and your future home value. To do that we need to stay up to date with not just local economic data but housing and design trends.

Note also that MLS rules limit us to using mostly public data and we can’t share restricted data that is proprietary to the MLS. We also can’t comment on another Realtor.

Let us know if we’re missing something or you disagree with anything. Your feedback is most valued.

About Lake Valley

Lake Valley is an upmarket golf course community located in unincorporated Boulder County, just north of Boulder off Highway 36 and Niwot Road. The community is known generally as Lake Valley and includes three subdivisions – Lake Valley Estates, North Rim and Fairways Living – although Fairways Living is not officially part of Lake Valley.

The community is anchored by the Lake Valley golf course and is designed so that most homes have golf course frontage or border onto open space. Almost every home has something – views south to the Flatirons, west to the foothills or overlooks the golf course. Throw in a number of lakes, a lake club house and easy access to miles of trails and open space and you have one of the most attractive residential communities in Boulder County.

The biggest local debates are whether Fairways Living is a part of Lake Valley (it isn’t but we added it in for this report), is North Rim more valuable than Lake Valley Estates (it is) and whether Lake Valley is part of Boulder, Niwot or even Longmont?

It all depends who you ask, what mailing address or zip code you use, how important social status is to you or what makes you feel good.

Whatever your answer, Lake Valley enjoys a reputation as strong real estate market, a sought-after upmarket golf community and a highly desirable place to live.

Market Size

Lake Valley is a small real estate market with a total of just 343 single family homes (including Fairways Living).

The community is almost built out (there are 2 vacant lots in Fairways Living) and comprises exclusively of single-family homes.

Fairways Living – 26 single family homes and 2 vacant lots

Lake Valley Estates – 156 single family homes

North Rim – 161 single family homes

Nationally, at any given time you can expect around 5% of homes to be on the market. That number is higher in Lake Valley as there were 27 new listings and 25 home sales (including pending sales) in 2019.

2019 All Lake Valley Real Estate Sales

There were 22 closed real estate sales in 2019 with a total sales prices of $18,763,500.

There was one outlier sale, namely the sale of the last vacant lot in Lake Valley for $225,000.

The only other data flag concerns days on market and sales to listing price. In both cases there was some listing withdrawals and new re-listings that decrease the perceived days on market and often hide price reductions.

2019 Lake Valley Real Estate Sales Stats

Number of Sales: 21

Single Family Homes: 20

Vacant Land: 1

Total Sale Price: $18,763,500

High: $1,495,000

Low: $225,000 (vacant lot)

Low: $730,000 (excl. vacant lot)

Average Sale Price: $937,026 (excl. Fairways Living and the Vacant Lot)

Median Price: $877,500 (excl. Fairways Living and Vacant Lot)

Average Price per SQFT: $218

2019 All Lake Valley Sold and Pending Listings

Here’s a list of all the homes that sold in Lake Valley in 2019. The data is taken from public records so we can’t see things like seller concessions that would impact the true sale price.

4251 Niblick Dr. $225,000

4101 Niblick Dr. $730,000

7011 Fairways Dr. $735,000

4152 Spy Glass Ln $749,500

4149 Greens Pl. $774,000

4152 Greens Pl. $775,000 (pending)

4115 Greens Pl.  $725,000 (pending sold Jan 2020))

4063 Niblick Pl. $799,900

4535 Palmer Ct. $842,000

6632 Fairways Dr. $850,000

6570 Fairways Dr. $860,000

6747 Snead Ct. $885,000

4072 Spy Glass Ln. $885,000 (pending sold Jan. 2020)

6713 Golf Club Dr. $889,000

6586 Fairways Dr. $895,000

6738 Snead Ct. $940,000

3980 Pebble Beach Dr. $941,000

4157 Niblick Dr. $964,000

3924 Bogey Ct. $980,000

3989 Pebble Beach Dr. $995,000

3924 Divot Ct. $1,035,000

4436 Nicklaus Ct. $1,100,000

4181 Niblick Dr. $1,100,000

4612 Palmer Ct. $1,170,000 (pending sold 2020)

4424 Nicklaus Ct. $1,495,000

2019 Fairways Living Sold Listings

There was one sale in Fairways Living in 2019. This makes it difficult to work out things like average price or average cost per sqft.

7011 Fairways Dr. $735,000

Average Sales Price: $735,000

2019 Lake Valley Estates Sold Listings

There were 11 sales in Lake Valley Estates in 2019, including the last vacant lot in Lake Valley.

4251 Niblick Dr. $225,000

4101 Niblick Dr. $730,000

4149 Greens Pl. $774,000

4063 Niblick Pl. $799,900

6632 Fairways Dr. $850,000

6570 Fairways Dr. $860,000

6586 Fairways Dr. $895,000

4157 Niblick Dr. $964,000

3924 Bogey Ct. $980,000

3924 Divot Ct. $1,035,000

4181 Niblick Dr. $1,100,000

Number of Sales: 10 (excl. vacant lot)

Sales Value: $896,7000

Average Price: $896,700

Median Price: $877,500

Average Price per SQFT: $213

2019 North Rim Sold Listings

There were 9 sales in North Rim in 2019.

4152 Spy Glass Ln $749,500

4535 Palmer Ct. $842,000

6747 Snead Ct. $885,000

6713 Golf Club Dr. $889,000

6738 Snead Ct. $940,000

3980 Pebble Beach Dr. $941,000

3989 Pebble Beach Dr. $995,000

4436 Nicklaus Ct. $1,100,000

4424 Nicklaus Ct. $1,495,000

Number of Sales: 9

Sales Value: $8,836,500

Average Price: $981,833

Median Price: $940,000

Average Price per SQFT: $224

Trends that Jumped Out

2019 was a bumper year at Lake Valley with 21 sales plus 4 pending sales.

We updated the annual report in early January as a number of pending sales closed in early 2020. What stood out is the significant drop in sale price from the initial listing price. It really feels like the market has levelled out and new listings need to be priced exactly right.

Is North Rim Better Than Lake Valley Estates?

There’s little doubt that North Rim has pulled away from Lake Valley Estates as the more upmarket community.   

There’s just under a $100K and $11 per sqft. price difference.

It’s not surprising really – North Rim homes are newer and larger.

Notable Listings that Caught the Eye

A number of listings stood out and are worth taking a closer look.

4251 Niblick Dr.

4251 Niblick Dr. was the last vacant lot in Lake Valley Estates and North Rim. The lot sold for $225,000 and the new owners have submitted a new residence building application to Boulder County.

There are now only two remaining vacant lots located in Fairways Living.

4612 Palmer Ct.

4612 Palmer Ct. was listed in 2019 and closed in January 2020. The thing that stood out was the final sale price of $978,000, a drop of $222,000 from the original list price. That’s a significant price drop for an attractive walk out ranch home in good condition, partially renovated but slightly dated, that borders the 10th Hole and has excellent views to the Flatirons and Foothills.

5 bed 4 bath, walk out ranch, 4165sqft. single family in North Rim, bordering the 10th Hole

Listed: June 2019 for $1,200,000

Sold: January 202 for $978,000

Price per sqft.: $235

Previous Sale: July 1998 for $545,000

Our main concern was that the large price reduction was an early indication of downward change in the market. There was nothing about the home that negatively impacted value other than it was slightly dated, except where renovated (updated kitchen).

It was only when we looked at the average cost per sqft. in North Rim, that we realized the $235 per sqft. sale price was right in line with the North Rim average of $224 per sqft.

The initial listing price at $288 per sqft. was probably too ambitious and is a further indication that the market has levelled off and is no longer a seller’s market.

4115 Greens Pl.

4115 Greens Pl. in Lake Valley Estates was listed in June 2019 for $810,000 and sold in January 2020 for $725,000.

What stood out is that this was the lowest priced sale in Lake Valley and there was a significant price cut of $85,000.

3 bed 4 bath, well maintained 2-story, 4406 sqft. single family home in Lake Valley Estates, with no golf course or mountain views.  3400 finished sqft.

Listed: June 2019 for $810,000

Sold: January 2020 for $725,000

Sale Price per SQFT: $165

Sale price per finished SQFT: $213

Previous Sale: $539,900 in March 2000

The concern here was the low price per sqft. and the significant $85,000 listing price drop. Are they signs of a downward market?

The lower 3400 finished sqft. area helps to explain the lower $165 per sqft number. But it doesn’t explain it all.

The other factor seems to be the location of the property. Lake Valley is blessed with outstanding views and gold course frontage. 4115 Greens sits in the middle of the subdivision with neither views nor golf course frontage. It’s not a bad location, just that by Lake Valley standards it’s not a good location.

At $165 a sqft. the buyer got great value.   

4348 Pebble Beach Dr

4348 Pebble Beach Dr. was listed in April 2019 for $1,500,000 and withdrawn September 2019 at $1,360,000.

What stood out was the series of price cuts as the listing bounced on and off the market.

5 bed 6 bath, 2-storey, 6767 sqft., renovated single family home in North Rim, bordering open space with unblocked views of the Flatirons.

Listed: April 2019 $1,500,000

Withdrawn: September 2019 $1,360,000

Initial List Price per SQFT: $222

Last List Price per SQFT: $201

Previous Sale: December 2016 for $960,000

We wanted to look at this listing as this home has it all but didn’t sell. Beautifully renovated, excellent location. Possible negatives are the front access is up a significant stair way and the renovations and heavy front exterior brickwork may not be to your style.

So why didn’t it sell – even at $201 per sqft?

We’re not really sure. Just one more sign that the market has slowed.

How Can We Help?

We shared the 2019 Annual Lake Valley Real Estate Market Report to give you a feel for what’s happening with the market and how it will impact your home value.

Tracking the market is just part of what we do in Lake Valley and Boulder County. Our main focus is to help you will every part of your homeownership journey, not just be there when you want to buy or sell.

Reach out to our concierge if you need any help with the daily management, repair and upkeep of your home. We’ll get you to the right resources, contacts or service providers that are reviewed and recommended by your neighbors.

Ross Hair


Boco Realty LLC

(303) 803-3242

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